IE6 will officially die six years from now (i.e. it will finally be completely dead in 2016). It is mathematically proven by this chart:
(Download Excel Spreadsheet)
The data comes from the W3C Schools browser statistics page. The "Months from 10.2% Overlap" is referring to the two points where browser usage of IE5 and IE6 were both at 10.2% (time-shifted so you can see how similar the data is). The W3C site appears to stop tracking browsers at 0.5% (I'm calling that dead). My goal with this chart is to show that the data is rather similar at this point in time.
Six years is a pretty bleak outlook. I also had Excel fit a line to the chart and came up with "y = -0.0093x + 0.085" with a R^2 of 0.9854 (a slightly better fit with the available data nodes). With the line, IE6 is declared dead by the W3C Schools' standard of 0.5% in 8.5 months. So, the real answer is probably somewhere between 8.5 months and six years. I'm leaning more toward five years. Come on - that's a curve and we all know it. It won't matter how many websites put up "You are using a dead web browser." People clearly are ignoring those signs and only upgrade when they want to.
(Download Excel Spreadsheet)
The data comes from the W3C Schools browser statistics page. The "Months from 10.2% Overlap" is referring to the two points where browser usage of IE5 and IE6 were both at 10.2% (time-shifted so you can see how similar the data is). The W3C site appears to stop tracking browsers at 0.5% (I'm calling that dead). My goal with this chart is to show that the data is rather similar at this point in time.
Six years is a pretty bleak outlook. I also had Excel fit a line to the chart and came up with "y = -0.0093x + 0.085" with a R^2 of 0.9854 (a slightly better fit with the available data nodes). With the line, IE6 is declared dead by the W3C Schools' standard of 0.5% in 8.5 months. So, the real answer is probably somewhere between 8.5 months and six years. I'm leaning more toward five years. Come on - that's a curve and we all know it. It won't matter how many websites put up "You are using a dead web browser." People clearly are ignoring those signs and only upgrade when they want to.
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